On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a massive military offensive against Iran, marking an unprecedented escalation in the decades-long conflict between the two countries. This operation, named "Roaring Lion" by Israel and "Epic Fury" by the United States, resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a regional war with dramatic consequences.
But why this attack now? What are the reasons cited by Israel and Washington? What are the real stakes behind this offensive? And above all, what are the consequences for the region, especially for Palestine and Gaza, already devastated by more than a year of war?
In this article, we factually and documented analyze the causes of this military escalation, the various factors that led to this war, and the implications for the entire Middle East. Without taking sides, we present the arguments of the different parties and the complex geopolitical context that led to this situation.
Iran and Palestine: An Ideological and Strategic Alliance
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has made support for Palestine one of the pillars of its foreign policy. For Tehran, the liberation of Palestine is not just a slogan: it is a concrete commitment that translates into financial, military, and diplomatic support for Palestinian resistance movements.
Hamas in Gaza and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have for decades received funding estimated at several hundred million dollars per year, as well as a transfer of military technologies (notably rocket manufacturing). Iran has also played a key role in training Palestinian fighters and in developing Gaza's defensive capabilities, particularly the tunnel network.
This alliance is not only military: it is also deeply ideological. For the Iranian regime, the Palestinian cause represents the struggle against Western imperialism and injustice. Portraits of Yasser Arafat, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin (founder of Hamas), and Palestinian flags are omnipresent in the streets of Tehran during anti-Israeli demonstrations.
However, this alliance comes at a price for Palestinians. It has contributed to Hamas's international isolation and has sometimes placed Palestinian resistance in a logic of regional confrontation that goes beyond Palestinian interests alone. The current Iran-Israel war illustrates this paradox: while Iran claims to defend Palestine, it is the Palestinians in Gaza who continue to die in indifference, their cause overshadowed by a regional war that concerns them but which they do not control.
The Historical Context: Decades of Hostility
From the Islamic Revolution to Today
Tensions between Israel and Iran are not new. Before 1979, under the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran maintained diplomatic relations with Israel. Everything changed with the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which brought Ayatollah Khomeini to power.
Since then, Iran refuses to recognize the existence of the State of Israel and actively supports Palestinian movements, notably Hamas and Islamic Jihad. For Tehran, the liberation of Palestine is a central ideological and strategic objective.
For its part, Israel considers Iran its main existential threat, especially since Tehran developed a nuclear program and built a network of regional alliances called "the Axis of Resistance."
Escalation since October 2023
The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, triggered a spiral of events that reshaped power dynamics in the Middle East. The ensuing war in Gaza gradually involved all regional actors:
- October 2023: Israel launches a massive ground and air offensive on Gaza
- December 2023 - January 2024: First direct Iran-Israel tensions with targeted assassinations
- April 2024: Iran launches "Operation Honest Promise" after its consulate in Damascus is bombed
- June 2025: Twelve-Day War between Iran and Israel, including US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites
- February 2026: Massive joint Israeli-American offensive
Official Reasons Cited by Israel and the United States
The Nuclear Threat
The main argument put forward by Israel and the United States concerns Iran's nuclear program. According to Tel Aviv, Iran is resuming its nuclear weapons program, officially halted in 2003 according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Donald Trump stated before the offensive: "We cannot allow Iran to develop a nuclear bomb that would threaten Israel, our allies, and our forces in the region."
The Iranian perspective: Iran has always denied developing nuclear weapons, asserting that its uranium enrichment program is solely for civilian and energy purposes. In March 2025, US intelligence services had indicated that they did not believe Iran had restarted its nuclear weapons program.
The paradox: Israel itself is considered an undeclared nuclear power, possessing between 80 and 400 nuclear warheads according to estimates. The Hebrew state has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and never hosts IAEA inspectors on its territory.
Ballistic Missiles
Donald Trump was explicit about this objective: "We will destroy their missiles and annihilate their ballistic industry."
Iran possesses one of the largest ballistic missile arsenals in the Middle East, with strike capabilities covering Israel, US bases in the region, and beyond. These missiles were used during the various escalations in 2024 and 2025.
Israeli-American strikes primarily targeted missile storage and launch sites, production facilities, and infrastructure related to Iran's ballistic program.
Iran's "Axis of Resistance"
The American president also mentioned the desire to annihilate Iran's "axis of resistance." This term refers to the network of alliances and armed groups financially and militarily supported by Tehran:
- Hezbollah in Lebanon: Considered Iran's most powerful proxy, with tens of thousands of fighters and an estimated arsenal of over 150,000 rockets
- Hamas in Gaza: Financially and militarily supported by Iran for decades
- Palestinian Islamic Jihad: Also active in Gaza and the West Bank
- The Houthis in Yemen: Who have attacked ships in the Red Sea and launched missiles towards Israel
- Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria: Who have attacked US bases in the region
According to Israel and Washington, dismantling this network would "stabilize" the region and protect Israel from threats on its borders.
Regime Change
Donald Trump made no secret of his ultimate goal: to achieve regime change in Iran. In his address on February 28, he stated his desire to "create the conditions that will allow the Iranian people to change the regime" and force Iran to abandon its nuclear and ballistic programs.
This desire follows the massive protests that shook Iran in December 2025 and January 2026, brutally repressed by the regime with thousands killed according to some sources. Trump had then promised the Iranian people that "help was on the way."
The Unspoken Reasons: Geopolitical Analysis
Beyond the official reasons, several geopolitical and strategic factors explain the timing and scale of this offensive.
Weakening of the "Axis of Resistance"
Between 2024 and 2025, Iran's allies suffered severe setbacks:
- Hamas: Weakened by 16 months of war in Gaza, with its leaders assassinated and its military capabilities reduced
- Hezbollah: Weakened by the war in Lebanon in 2024, with the elimination of many key figures
- The Assad regime in Syria: Fell in late 2024, depriving Iran of a strategic ally and a land corridor to Lebanon
For Israel, this moment of weakening of the "Axis" represented a window of opportunity to strike Iran directly, without risking a coordinated retaliation from all its allies simultaneously.
Regional Military Dominance
Israel demonstrated its overwhelming military superiority during the war in Gaza and Lebanon. Israeli anti-aircraft defense systems (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow) intercepted almost all Iranian missiles and drones during previous escalations.
This technological and military dominance, coupled with total American support, likely encouraged Tel Aviv to launch a direct offensive against Iran, believing it could manage the reprisals.
Trump's Return and the "Maximum Pressure" Policy
Donald Trump's return to the White House in January 2025 changed the game. Unlike the Biden administration, Trump adopted a "maximum pressure" stance on Iran, similar to that of his first term (2017-2021).
The failure of indirect nuclear negotiations in February 2026 in Oman served as the final trigger. Hours before the offensive, the Omani Foreign Minister had tweeted that "peace is within reach" – an optimism that proved tragically premature.
The Course of the Offensive: Strikes and Retaliation
February 28, 2026: The Start of the Operation
At dawn on February 28, Israel and the United States simultaneously launched massive strikes on Iran, targeting:
- The Pasteur district in Tehran, where the residence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was located
- Missile launch sites across the country
- Nuclear program facilities
- Energy infrastructure
- Revolutionary Guard command centers
Ali Khamenei, 86, who had led Iran since 1989, was killed in the early hours of the offensive. His death triggered 40 days of national mourning and the establishment of a provisional Leadership Council pending the election of a new Supreme Leader.
Iranian Retaliation
Contrary to expectations, Iran retaliated very quickly, signaling the existence of an ultra-redundant continuity plan with pre-authorized strikes and a decentralized chain of command.
Within hours, Iran launched:
- Hundreds of ballistic missiles towards Israel, hitting Tel Aviv and Haifa (toll: at least 10 civilians killed)
- Massive attacks against US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates
- Strikes against civilian infrastructure in Gulf countries (airports of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait)
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, immediately disrupting global oil and gas supplies
Hezbollah's Entry and the Lebanese Front
On March 1, in response to Khamenei's death, Hezbollah entered the war, launching volleys of rockets and drones towards northern Israel. The IDF immediately retaliated with massive bombardments on Lebanon, opening a new front.
Provisional toll on March 4: at least 72 killed in Lebanon and over 80,000 displaced persons.
Consequences for Palestine and Gaza
This regional escalation has dramatic consequences for Palestine, already exhausted after 16 months of war in Gaza.
Gaza: Increased Invisibility
While Gaza has more than 72,000 deaths according to official Palestinian figures (and potentially up to 126,000 according to The Lancet including indirect deaths), the Iran-Israel conflict has completely overshadowed the situation in the enclave.
The 600 deaths in Gaza since the precarious ceasefire of October 2025 no longer make international headlines, overshadowed by the regional war.
West Bank: Escalation of Violence
Taking advantage of diverted media attention towards Iran, Israel has intensified its operations in the West Bank. Settlements continue to expand, IDF raids multiply, and settler violence against Palestinians increases in general indifference.
Weakened Hamas
Hamas, already very weakened after the war in Gaza, finds itself even more isolated with the death of its main financial and military supporter, Ali Khamenei. The organization has called for solidarity with Iran but is unable to open a new front against Israel.
Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon
The opening of the Lebanese front endangers hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees living in camps in South Lebanon, an area directly targeted by Israeli bombardments. These civilian populations suffer a double penalty: already refugees since 1948, they find themselves under bombs again.
International Reactions
The European Union
The European Union, through Ursula von der Leyen, Charles Michel, and Josep Borrell, condemned the Israeli-American strikes as contrary to international law. Spain, through Pedro Sánchez, was particularly critical.
The E3 trio (France, United Kingdom, Germany) adopted a more nuanced position, stating their readiness to support "proportionate defensive military measures" against Iranian missiles and drones.
UN Security Council
The Iranian ambassador to the UN denounced a "war crime" and a "crime against humanity" before the Security Council, citing the hundreds of civilians killed, including 148 children in a primary school bombed in Minab.
Israel, through its Defense Minister Israel Katz, described the operation as a legitimate "preemptive strike" against an "existential threat."
Arab Countries
The Gulf countries, notably the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, find themselves on the front line of Iranian reprisals despite their non-direct participation in the offensive. Their civilian infrastructures have been hit, causing dozens of casualties.
Saudi Arabia, which had been seeking rapprochement with Iran since 2023, finds itself in a delicate position.
Human and Material Toll (as of March 8, 2026)
Iranian Side
According to Iranian sources and international organizations:
- At least 1,500 civilians killed in Israeli-American strikes
- More than 3,000 injured
- 900 military targets hit according to the United States
- Energy and nuclear infrastructure partially destroyed
- Navy, air force, and anti-aircraft defense severely weakened
Killed personalities:
- Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader
- Mohammad Pakpour, head of the Revolutionary Guard
- Ali Shamkhani, advisor to the Leader
- Several high-ranking military officers and nuclear scientists
Israeli Side
- At least 35 civilians killed by Iranian missiles and drones
- 127 injured
- Significant material damage in Tel Aviv and Haifa
- Nevatim and Ramon military bases damaged
American Side
- No confirmed casualties among US military personnel (Iran claims to have captured US soldiers, denied by the Pentagon)
- Military bases hit in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq
Third-Party Countries
- Lebanon: At least 72 dead, 80,000 displaced
- United Arab Emirates: Dozens of civilian casualties at airports
- Kuwait: Several injured at the international airport
- Oman: Infrastructure damaged
Naval Losses
Iranian frigate Dena sunk by a US submarine off the coast of Sri Lanka: 101 missing, 78 injured (first ship sunk by a US submarine since 1945)
Future Stakes
Towards Regime Change in Iran?
Trump and Netanyahu's stated goal is to bring about regime change in Iran. Khamenei's death does indeed create a power vacuum, but several scenarios are possible:
Scenario 1: Regime Continuity
The election of a new Supreme Leader in Khamenei's mold, with Mojtaba Khamenei (Ali's son) as the favorite.
Scenario 2: Popular Revolution
A massive popular uprising taking advantage of the regime's disorganization. However, the repression of January 2026 showed that the regime still possesses significant means of coercion.
Scenario 3: Civil War
A fragmentation of power among different factions (Revolutionary Guards, moderates, reformers) could lead to internal conflict.
Risk of Conflict Expansion
The conflict risks spreading to other countries:
- Yemen: The Houthis could intensify their attacks in the Red Sea
- Iraq: Pro-Iranian militias could target more American bases
- Syria: Despite Assad's fall, pro-Iranian groups remain
Impact on Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations
This war further distances the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel has demonstrated its regional military dominance, but at the cost of increasing diplomatic isolation and widespread hardening of positions.
Hopes for normalization between Israel and the Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, are also frozen indefinitely.
FAQ - Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Israel attacking Iran now?
Several factors: the weakening of Iran's "Axis of Resistance", Trump's return, protests in Iran, and fears related to the nuclear program.
Is the war over?
No. Strikes continue on both sides. The United States has deployed ammunition stockpiles capable of sustaining strikes for another 7 to 10 days.
What is the civilian casualty toll?
At least 1,500 Iranian civilians killed, 35 Israeli civilians, and dozens in Gulf countries and Lebanon.
Why doesn't Iran use nuclear weapons?
Iran officially does not possess nuclear weapons, according to US intelligence agencies and the IAEA.
What is the impact on oil prices?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a surge in oil and gas prices, disrupting the global economy.
What about Gaza in all of this?
Gaza is unfortunately overlooked by this regional conflict, while the humanitarian situation there remains catastrophic.
Conclusion
The Israeli-American offensive against Iran on February 28, 2026, marks a turning point in Middle Eastern history. Beyond the official reasons given (nuclear, missiles, terrorism), this war is part of a dynamic of reconfiguring regional power relations, where Israel seeks to consolidate its military dominance.
The human consequences are already dramatic: thousands dead, hundreds of thousands displaced, a disrupted global economy. For Palestine, this escalation means an even greater invisibilization of its cause and the fading of any prospect of peace.
As for whether this war will truly "stabilize" the region, as Washington and Tel Aviv claim, or if it is merely another stage in an endless cycle of violence, only time will tell. One thing is certain: civilian populations, whether Iranian, Israeli, Palestinian, or Lebanese, bear the heaviest price.
Further Reading
The escalation between Israel and Iran cannot be understood without grasping the broader dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that underlies it. Since the attack of October 7, 2023, the region has plunged into a spiral of violence that now affects the entire Middle East.
In the face of these tragic events, it is more important than ever to keep Palestinian culture alive and not let this cause fall into oblivion. Discover our collection of Palestinian keffiyehs, symbols of cultural resistance and solidarity.
Follow our news from Palestine to stay informed about the evolving situation in the region.
Finally, to express your rejection of imperialism, do not hesitate to buy a Palestinian flag, or an Iranian flag.
Sources
This article is based on verified news sources:
- Reporterre
- France Info
- Euronews
- Le Grand Continent
Figures and assessments are subject to change. Last updated: March 8, 2026.